Prediction inherently becomes harder the

Prediction inherently becomes harder the farther out you try to predict. Both polling and market based prediction suffer from this weakness. I believe polling starts out far less accurate and improve greatly as the event approaches. Markets also improve as you get closer to the event but I think they have more long term validity. Not all markets are created equally, the number of participants and the volume of activity are key to more accurate market. There is an opportunity cost to tying up your money in long term contracts, especially for little gain, that also can make longer term bets less attractive.