Free Market Trade

I posted last week how

I posted last week how the Jordan bombings could lead to an increased probabality of capture for al-Zarqawi. I think the denouncement by his tribe will also make it more likely that he is caught/killed. Of course the Tradesports market has been up and down on the news of his potential death- followed by the White House statement that it was "Unlikely." Here is the chart, guess when the news the he might have been killed came out.

Prediction inherently becomes harder the

Prediction inherently becomes harder the farther out you try to predict. Both polling and market based prediction suffer from this weakness. I believe polling starts out far less accurate and improve greatly as the event approaches. Markets also improve as you get closer to the event but I think they have more long term validity. Not all markets are created equally, the number of participants and the volume of activity are key to more accurate market. There is an opportunity cost to tying up your money in long term contracts, especially for little gain, that also can make longer term bets less attractive.

Does the Bob Woodward relevation

Does the Bob Woodward relevation mean that Scooter Libby is less likely to be convicted? The Libby contract has fallen in the past few days in light of the news. I am not sure the cause and effect here, but the market did move on the information.

John Fund writes that Warner

John Fund writes that Warner is the big winner from the last election and is now emerging as a front runner for the Dem nomination. His contract moved up to 19 on the day the article appeared.

I saw this article by

I saw this article by Ian Mather on the backlash against Al-Qaeda after the Jordan bombings. It is interesting that the Zarqawi capture contract is up a few points since the event. It is still well below its high of above 50 and close to expiration.

The contract for Mark

The contract for Mark Warner as the Dem '08 nominee has picked up in the wake of the election of Virginia's governor.

I compared the TradeSports results to the new Rasmussen polling data for this race. Warrner is a strong second to Hillary Clinton in the Tradesports market but lagging far behind in the polling: Clinton 43% Gore 14% Edwards 13%Kerry 10%.

This is in contrast to the actual Gov's race in Virginia that just concluded. Rasmussen had Kaine taking the lead before he was favored by TradeSports. Both performed very well in the 2004 election and I continue to analyze the strengths and weaknesses of both data sources.

This blog is a space

This blog is a space for comment on markets, specifically trading markets. These markets, especially Tradesports.com (also known as Intrade or Trade/BetX) provide interesting insights into political, legal and current events. These markets are often more accurate than polls and can be read as the approximate percentage chance that an event will happen.

Market informed politics

This blog is a space for comment on markets, specifically trading markets. These markets, especially Tradesports.com (also known as Intrade or Trade/BetX) provide interesting insights into political, legal and current events. These markets are often more accurate than polls and can be read as the approximate percentage chance that an event will happen.